Metro Manila condo oversupply: the 2026 numbers

Leechiu Property Consultants counts unsold condo units in Metro Manila and how many months they would take to sell at the current pace.

Leechiu's 8,454 units in Q3 2026 work out to about 92 condo reservations a day in Metro Manila. That counts new units from developers, before cancellations, not resales or houses. In Q3, sales of ready-for-occupancy units rose 89% from a year earlier while pre-selling sales fell 26%.

Colliers counted only 2,600 new condo units launched in the first half of 2026, 64% fewer than a year earlier. SM Prime has said it will not launch new Metro Manila residential projects for the rest of 2026, and Megaworld cut its 2026 launch target from ₱65 billion to ₱50 billion. Most of the few launches are luxury towers in Makati and BGC.

Colliers expects vacancy to peak at a record 25.6% at the end of 2026 before easing toward about 20% by 2030 as fewer new towers are completed.

For buyers, ready-for-occupancy units in the ₱4 million to ₱12 million range carry the biggest discounts. For renters, outside BGC, Makati CBD and Rockwell, landlords compete for tenants. For investors, expect yields of about 3.4% to 4.7% rather than the higher figures in marketing material.